If I had more time/energy, I'd do a more complete retrospective on the year in film - I saw an unprecedented number of films within the calendar year. Here's my predictions for the Oscar ceremony tomorrow, with opinions where I feel sufficiently well-versed to offer them. I haven't seen any of the shorts or the documentaries - those are straight-up guesses.
Major Nominees I've Missed: The Last Station; Invictus; The Lovely Bones; The Messenger; Nine
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Bright Star; Fantastic Mr. Fox; A Single Man
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Avatar
Popular wisdom says the race is truly between Basterds, Avatar and The Hurt Locker. While Locker's got a lot of buzz, I think the structure of preference voting gives it to Avatar. Due to its technological achievements, I think it's more likely than the other two to be placed high even on the lists of people who didn't necessarily like it.
Best Director
Should/Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
I don't think the Academy can resist the "history-making" narrative that's swept Bigelow along thus far. She deserves it, too; I think Locker is the best-executed and most focused of the five nominees here.
Best Actress
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Abbie Cornish, Bright Star; Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
I wish the younger nominees hadn't been overshadowed by Bullock and Meryl Streep - Sidibe and Carey Mulligan were truly MVPs of film in 2009.
Best Actor
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Sharlto Copley, District 9; Sam Rockwell, Moon
Should Win: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
I can't really argue with Bridges' "due" narrative - both he and Firth gave wonderful, vanity-free performances. For me Firth has the emotional edge in the rawness he brought to A Single Man.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds; Julianne Moore, A Single Man; Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds; Paula Patton, Precious (One of this year's great underheralded performances, in my opinion)
Should/Will Win: Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Paul Schneider, Bright Star (In an ideal world, "I failed John Keats!" would join "Who was gonna love me?" "That's a bingo!" and "My tombstone will have my real name" among the played-out nominee clips at this point in the film award season); Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker (The best instance of truly supporting the lead actor); Alfred Molina, An Education; Matthew Goode, A Single Man (Had more chemistry with Colin Firth in a few minutes than existed in the entire span of Crazy Heart between Maggie Gyllenhaal and Jeff Bridges)
Should/Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
It's my dream that Waltz and Mo'Nique show up with him wearing a cummerbund to match her dress, like prom dates. His speeches this award season have been practiced, but thoughtful. I'm eager to see what he's got for the crowd tomorrow.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, (500) Days of Summer
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
It's been called a toss-up, but I think Boal's got the momentum here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Wes Anderson and Noah Baumbach, Fantastic Mr. Fox
Should Win: Actually, all five are good. My personal favorites are Nick Hornby for An Education and Armando Iannucci and team for In the Loop
Will Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Up in the Air has lost most of its buzz in its other nominated categories. I think this is where they'll elect to honor Reitman. Have to give props to the Brits - An Education is another stellar example of Hornby's skill with narratives of people forced into growing up and In the Loop not only features an excellent compendium of conversational swearing but an incisive, knowing look at political culture.
Best Animated Film
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Will Win: Up
It's probably not news to anyone here that I'm a Wes Anderson fan; the title "Accounting for Everything" comes directly from The Royal Tenenbaums. I will say that Fox is the first instance where I've enjoyed any of Noah Baumbach's work either with Anderson or alone. The medium of stop-motion is ideally suited to Anderson's meticulous attention to detail.
Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: The White Ribbon
Best Cinematography
Prediction: Avatar
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Every Little Step
Prediction: The Cove
Best Documentary Short
Prediction: China's Unnatural Disaster
Best Live Action Short Film
Prediction: The Door
Best Animated Short Film
Prediction: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Film Editing
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Fantastic Mr. Fox; Coraline (At least one of the stop-motion films deserved recognition here); Inglourious Basterds
Prediction: Avatar
Best Visual Effects
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: Watchmen (I guess this film's lukewarm critical reception killed its chances here. I think, though, that even the people who question Zak Snyder's understanding of the Watchmen narrative couldn't argue with his visual recreation of the novel's world)
Prediction: Avatar
Best Sound Mixing
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing
Prediction: Avatar
Best Costume Design
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: An Education; A Single Man (I'm surprised that neither of the year's big sixties movies got a costume design nomination, especially the one guided by a major fashion designer); Precious (Evokes the eighties without resorting to cliche, which doesn't happen as often as it should); Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Bright Star
Will Win: The Young Victoria
I have to pull for Bright Star here, since the movie deserves so much more attention than it got. I can't really argue with Victoria's presumptive win here - it makes wearing yards and yards of heavy fabric look positively luxurious.
Best Makeup
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: District 9
Prediction: Star Trek
I honestly have no idea how District 9 got snubbed here. The artistic categories are kind of a mystery to me, frankly.
Best Original Song
Nominees I'd Have Liked to See: "Satellite Heart," New Moon (It's almost certainly too hipster-y for the Academy, but it would've been nice to see at least one of New Moon's original songs recognized. Even haters love the soundtrack)
Prediction: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Best Original Score
Prediction: Up
Not only has Michael Giacchino done great work for Pixar, in 2009 he also created an awesome score for Star Trek.
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